Saints and Owls could serve up plenty of goals at St Mary’s

The meeting of Southampton and Sheffield Wednesday in the Capital One Cup once again pits two sides who haven’t quite found the step up into the division above quite as easy as they might have hoped.

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The 2011/12 season was one of glory for both clubs, with the Saints and the Owls winning promotion from the Championship and League One respectively and there was great cause for optimism over the summer that this rapid progression could continue apace.

Alas, that progress seems to have stalled. Both managers, Nigel Adkins and Dave Jones, have been heavily backed by their owners and when your chairman is either Nicola Cortese or Milan Mandaric, then you need to repay that support with results on the pitch – something that hasn’t really happened at either club thus far.

To take the Saints first, Adkins has come under pressure (ridiculously so in my opinion considering he has overseen back-to-back promotions from the third tier) after losing his first four games of the campaign, but a tough fixture list consisting of Manchester United, Manchester City and Arsenal went some way to explaining that away.

Even still, there was huge relief around St Mary’s when Adkins’ men collected their first three points of the season with a win over Aston Villa at the weekend, and that 4-1 success has gone some way to alleviating the pressure on the former Scunthorpe boss.

Five of the Saints’ six fixtures in league and cup have seen at least four goals as Adkins’ side continue to look dangerous going forward while incapable of keeping a clean sheet at the back. It is an equation that results in goals, and the same can happen at St Mary’s this evening.

Up at Wednesday, things have gone a bit pear-shaped after a promising start. The Owls have lost four games on the bounce in the league after taking seven points from their first three and as previously mentioned, that is not the sort of run that you want to be on if Manadric is your superior.

So will the Capital One Cup clash be a welcome distraction from the league for these clubs, or a game that both will be fearful of losing? I think it could well be the former and as such, it makes the 3-way market a dangerous one to bet one without confirmed team news. You can get 13/20 on a home win, 4/1 on a Wednesday victory and 13/5 on the draw and I am just about going to swerve that big price on the visitors and look at the goals market.

Of course, this tie pits Jones against his former club and the Owls boss, who was treated pretty shabbily by former Saints chairman Rupert Lowe when he was relieved of his duties in the wake of totally unfounded child abuse allegations, still harbours that grievance and will want to get one over his former club, even if he has faced them many times since.

But I am going to ignore that, as well as his side’s claims, and get on the 13/10 that there are over 3.5 goals. That may be a bit shorter than you would normally expect, but there is probably a good reason for that and you only have to look at Southampton’s results this season to see why.

Five of the Saints’ six fixtures in league and cup have seen at least four goals as Adkins’ side continue to look dangerous going forward while incapable of keeping a clean sheet at the back. It is an equation that results in goals, and the same can happen at St Mary’s this evening.

Four of Wednesday’s eight games this season have also seen at least four goals and the 13/10 on over 3.5 goals on a match that could well be open and pressure-free looks good to me.

Recommended bet: Over 3.5 goals in Southampton v Sheff Wed @ 13/10

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