Expect United to see off Cluj with a second-half barrage

Manchester United suffered their first home defeat against Tottenham for 23 years at the weekend as the Londoners defied their 5/1 pre-match billing with a sensational 3-2 triumph.

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Sir Alex Ferguson must have given his shell-shocked players the full hairdryer treatment after watching them slump to the surprise reverse, but it will be the manner of the defeat which infuriated him the most.

For all his talk of being insulted by the four minutes of injury-time at the end of the game, the Scot will be well aware that the events of the preceding 90 minutes at Old Trafford were the real reason for his side’s downfall.

Spurs were simply too powerful and too quick for United, who were horribly exposed in midfield by the combination of craft and physicality provided by Sandro and Moussa Dembele.

The pace of Gareth Bale was a thorn in the Red Devils’ side all afternoon and with Nemanja Vidic sidelined for two months, the woeful performance of Rio Ferdinand will have had Ferguson reaching for the nearest bottle of red.

The Red Devils have scored 21 goals on the road in this competition since the start of the 2009/10 campaign and, remarkably, 16 of them have arrived in the second half of their matches (the same is also true of ten of their last 12).

Ferdinand has enjoyed a glorious career but at the age of 33, Father Time looks to be finally catching up with the former West Ham and Leeds centre-back, and nine goals shipped in six Premier League games is a real concern for United.

The only small crumb of comfort for Ferguson and his troops is that they have little time for navel-gazing as they are quickly back in action on Tuesday night in the Champions League against CFR Cluj.

After opening their Group H campaign with a less-than-convincing 1-0 win over Galatasaray, the three-time European champions will expect to maintain their 100% record as they head east to face the Romanian minnows.

United are rated as 13/20 favourites for the win, with the draw available at 11/4 and a shock triumph for Cluj priced at 4/1.

The fact that United are not shorter against such modest opposition is no doubt a nod from the bwin bookies to their patchy recent form – and it is for the same reason that this price should be swerved.

Of course, Ferguson’s men should have more than enough in reserve to pick up all three points, even without the experience of Paul Scholes, Ryan Giggs, Michael Carrick and Antonio Valencia, all of whom have been omitted.

However, there is far better value to be found elsewhere on a potential United victory, mainly because of an intriguing trend which has been developing in their Champions League away games in recent seasons.

The Red Devils have scored 21 goals on the road in this competition since the start of the 2009/10 campaign and, remarkably, 16 of them have arrived in the second half of their matches (the same is also true of ten of their last 12).

A cursory glance at the bwinbetting Stats Centre shows that United appear to be following this pattern in the Premier League this season too, with ten of their 14 goals so far coming after the interval.

Delving deeper into this theory also reveals that Cluj have conceded 14 goals in the first ten games of the new Romanian First Division campaign and – you guessed it – that ten of those have been shipped in the final 45 minutes of their fixtures.

This statistical quirk is satisfying in the extreme because it opens up several potential punting avenues, particularly when you consider how the game is likely to pan out from a tactical perspective.

Ferguson has demanded more caution from his players on the road in Europe in recent seasons, as shown by the fact that they have picked up seven clean sheets in their last nine Champions League away games.

And with Cluj sure to sit back and look for scraps on the counter-attack, it does not take a huge leap of imagination to envisage United being frustrated early on before asserting their dominance as the match wears on.

Considering the statistics mentioned above, United to win the second half looks to be serious lumping material at evens, while the 7/5 on Ferguson’s men to score more goals after the interval than before it can be viewed in similar terms.

Punters registering with bwin can claim a free £20 bet and placing this on the latter option would return £48 if successful.

But if those two prices are not exciting enough for you, a small play on United to win after a drawn first half could offer a more profitable alternative at 18/5.

One thing is for sure, though – anything other than a victory for the Red Devils will be viewed as a disaster and provide further credence to the theory that they are vulnerable this term, regardless of how many goals the Wayne Rooney – Robin van Persie strike partnership provides in the coming months.

Recommended bets (click to add to betslip):
United to win the second half @ Evens
United to score more goals in the second half than the first @ 7/5

Outside punt:
United to win after a drawn first half @ 18/5

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