Jaguares Chiapas will go off as odds-on favourites in the betting for their Copa Libertadores last-16 first leg against Atletico Junior.
The Mexican side have home advantage and are priced at 3/4 with bwin, which appears to be good value, judging by their form in the competition so far this campaign.
Their progress to the knock-out stages was built on a perfect record of three wins from three matches in front of their own supporters, including a notable 1-0 success over holders Internacional.
So the prospect of facing Junior, who currently sit 14th in the Colombian Postabon, is unlikely to hold too many fears for Jose Nunez’s men.
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The visitors did finish as winners of Group 2, but had modest opposition in the shape of Bolivian minnows Oriente Petrolero and Peruvian side Leon de Huanco.
And even runners-up Gremio, arguably the strongest team on paper in the group, have since been exposed by Universidad Catolica, who won 2-1 in their last-16 first leg in Brazil this week.
Junior have conceded in all six Libertadores matches to date, while also leaking 21 in 13 games in their domestic league, despite winning last year’s Apertura.
With that in mind, betting odds of 5/2 on Jaguares notching twice exactly could be viewed as a decent proposition, with the 91/100 available on them scoring at least two goals possibly proving popular as well.
A closer look at the statistics reveals that under 1.5 goals were scored in the first half of all three of Jaguares’ home matches and all three of Junior’s away matches in the group phase.
Punters who believe it will be lucky number seven at the Estadio Victor Manuel Reyna can bet on a repeat at 21/50, which means a successful £10 stake would return £14.20 at bwin.com.
Along the same theme, just two of the eight goals conceded by Jaguares in the Libertadores have come in the first half, so perhaps the 21/50 available on Junior failing to score in the opening 45 minutes could attract interest.
Of course, it should be noted that the Mexicans are not in particularly fine form themselves, despite their impressive home record in continental competition.
They actually lost all three away matches in their group and have not won on the road since January in the Clausura, where they sit bottom of Group 3 after a run of four straight defeats.
So this may give encouragement to anyone wanting to bet on Junior to cause an upset at odds of 16/5, or perhaps back the 23/10 on offer for them to grab a valuable share of the spoils.
If the first half is indeed a low-scoring affair, then selections such as draw/Junior, which is priced at 31/4, could prove a tempting way of showing support for the Colombians.
A winning £10 bet on Jaguares to beat Junior 2-1 would return £87.50 at bwin.com.
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