If you’re looking for an international match to pick out a goalscorer, then you could do a lot worse than head straight to a fixture involving Germany.
There’s a very simple reason for this: Joachim Low’s side are currently the goal machines of Europe.
Having hit a very impressive 34 goals in their ten qualifying games for Euro 2012, Germany have scored 27 in their last ten fixtures and have an attacking prowess which means their position at the head of the betting to lift the trophy is utterly justified.
Two consecutive defeats, including a very poor 5-3 loss in Switzerland at the weekend, mean Low will be desperate to sign off in style against Israel before Germany head off to Poland and Ukraine.
I therefore expect them to score a few against an Israel side who won’t have the same edge as the focused Germans, so it is a case of locating a value goalscorer.
Low’s Bayern Munich contingent are back in the fold after missing the defeat against Switzerland due to their Champions League exploits, and it is from Munich I expect Germany to get their goals.
Mario Gomez is the obvious shout – the Bayern Munich striker has notched eight in his last ten international matches.
His incredible goalscoring exploits extend to his club form this season: 26 Bundisliga goals and 12 strikes in the Champions League (as well as two in the domestic cup) mean he is a worthy favourite, but 2/1 first goalscorer is too short to get involved with given the creative quality that Germany possess.
Instead, I’ll look towards Thomas Muller, who is in fine goalscoring form for both club and country. The 22-year-old has four in his last four for Munich, including a strike in the Champions League final against Chelsea, and is in similar form for Germany, netting three in his last five. At 9/2 to open the scoring he represents better value than the German strikers, who are too short.
Israel are not without hope of scoring themselves given that Germany have kept just one clean sheet in their last ten matches, letting in 19 goals in that time. Itay Shechter didn’t enjoy the best season for Kaiserslautern, but he has scored two goals in his last seven for Israel, including one against Czech Republic at the weekend, and at 11/1 to score first perhaps represents the Israelis’ best chance of a goal.
Recommended bet: Thomas Muller to score first @ 9/2
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