Championship Title and Promotion Betting Preview 2012/13

They say that the Championship is the hardest division to escape from and with the new season fast approaching, bwinbetting.com has assessed how the likes of Leicester City, Bolton Wanderers, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Blackburn Rovers, Nottingham Forest, Leeds United, Cardiff City, Brighton and Hove Albion, Blackpool, Birmingham City, Middlesbrough and Sheffield Wednesday will fare as they all vie to make it to the promised land of the Premier League.

Leicester City

Title odds: 7/1 (9/4 to be promoted)

The odds compilers at bwin make Leicester City the favourites in a division that looks as wide open as ever and after flattering to deceive last term at a much shorter price, the Foxes look set to be far closer this time around.

Twelve months ago, Sven Goran Eriksson was in the middle of a poor transfer splurge, paying over the odds for average players he was unable to inspire. The Swede lasted until November and his replacement, Nigel Pearson, should make a better fist of the expected promotion bid.

The former Hull boss has wasted little time in shipping out many of Eriksson’s buys and in stamping his own authority on the squad, Pearson looks to have spent more wisely than his predecessor and can make a charge for the top six.

I say top six because there are others preferred for the title, especially at the prices: a tally of 66 goals last season needs improvement and much will depend on how Jamie Vardy, a £1 million signing from Fleetwood Town who scored 33 goals last year in the Conference, adapts to second-tier football.

Nevertheless, Pearson is an astute manager and can repeat the feat of his first stint at the King Power Stadium by taking the Foxes to the Championship play-offs.

Verdict: Play-offs

Bolton Wanderers

Title odds: 13/2 (5/2 to be promoted)

Relegation from the Premier League was a bitter blow for Bolton to swallow but there is enough evidence to suggest that their stay in the Championship will be short-lived and Wanderers should be backed to bounce straight back to the top flight at the first time of asking.

Manager Owen Coyle suffered a severe dent to his reputation in overseeing the end of Bolton’s 11-year stay in the Premier League, but the former Burnley boss has the tools to make up for that and repair the damage. The Trotters are yet to lose a significant member of the squad that were demoted on the final day of last season and should that remain the case between now and the end of the transfer window, Bolton have quality in abundance at this level.

Their squad is full of players who previously excelled in the second tier (Tyrone Mears, Chris Eagles, Keith Andrews), there is still plenty of Premier League quality and, crucially, the return of Stuart Holden from a long-term injury and Chung-Yong Lee – both of whom were so badly missed last season – will add real class in midfield.

The loan signing of Arsenal’s Benik Afobe also looks a shrewd move and you only have to look at how Bolton performed against the rest of the bottom six last year for an indication of how they will attack the Championship. Wanderers won seven of the ten games against the other five sides, many of them pressure matches, which suggests that Coyle can mastermind an immediate return to the big league.

Verdict: Automatic promotion

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Title odds: 15/2 (3/1 to be promoted)

Wolves endured a dismal campaign last time out as they finished rock bottom of the Premier League and it may take the Molineux side some time to adjust to life in the Championship.

The decision to sack Mick McCarthy and replace him with his assistant Terry Connor was disastrous and Wolves duly paid the penalty with relegation, but with so much uncertainty surrounding the club, odds of 15/2 for the title are best avoided.

New manager Stale Solbakken represents a risk for owner Steve Morgan at a time when instability is rife. Solbakken had a great record at Copenhagen, winning five Danish league titles, but endured a dismal time in his last job with Cologne, where he was sacked after nine months with the side languishing in 16th in the Bundesliga.

There were murmurs of discontent from the Cologne players about Solbakken’s regime and the tactics he employed, and if you listen carefully enough the same thing is happening at Molineux now, with the players ‘trying to get used to his methods’, according to Connor, who has retained a role at the club.

Add in the fact that it is impossible to know the the make-up of Wolves’ squad come the end of the transfer window given the speculation around many of their better players (most obviously Steven Fletcher) and the team that won just five games in 2011/12 and haven’t tasted victory since February 2nd – a run of 26 league games with a solitary win – represent poor value to land the Championship title.

Verdict: Miss out on the play-offs

Blackburn Rovers

Title odds: 10/1 (4/1 to be promoted)

Blackburn are the third of the relegated trio to be at the head of the Championship title market, but again there are more questions than answers about Rovers going into their first second-tier campaign in 11 years.

Steve Kean appears to have survived relegation to keep his job, but for how long is anyone’s guess. Venky’s, the Indian owners who haven’t put a foot right since taking over at Ewood Park in 2010, are still universally loathed by the fans, and rightly so. But the relationship between the supporters and those that run the club is so vitriolic it can only hamper Rovers as they bid to win promotion.

Blackburn have bought solidly, even extremely well in the case of Danny Murphy, who could have graced the Premier League for another season at least, and have some promising youngsters who will be better for their baptism of fire under difficult circumstances last year. But there is still insufficient quality that makes the 10/1 price a no-go.

Junior Hoilett’s inevitable move to QPR leaves Rovers without a creative spark and the 17 league goals from Yakubu don’t seem to have been replaced adequately. With such high-profile departures and the poisonous atmosphere at the club, Blackburn can’t be trusted to put a sustained title bid together.

Verdict: Miss out on the play-offs

Nottingham Forest

Title odds: 10/1 (4/1 to be promoted)

The price on Nottingham Forest to win the Championship is based entirely on  hypotheticals and at this point represents one of the worst bets of the summer.

Yes, the Tricky Trees have been taken over by the Kuwaiti-based Al-Hasawi family, one of the wealthiest families in the region with a track record of football success in their homeland, but whatever long-term effect that will have on the club has not yet taken hold. The reality is that, at the time of writing, Forest’s squad remains someway short of the top teams in the section and they should harbour little hope of muscling in on the promotion picture.

Appointing Sean O’Driscoll in place of Steve Cotterill was a sensible move, but only last week the former Doncaster boss was bemoaning the ‘gaping holes’ in his squad, a squad that limped home in 19th position last season after battling relegation for the majority of the campaign.

Only relegated Doncaster had a worse home record than Forest, who at one point last year went through a spell of scoring just one goal in 11 games. In other words, there is a great deal of work for O’Driscoll to do and with transfer activity uninspiring so far, it is hard to envisage anything better than mid-table for this current incarnation of Forest.

Verdict: Miss out on the play-offs

Leeds United

Title odds: 10/1 (4/1 to be promoted)

Leeds have had to live with being the biggest club outside of the Premier League for eight seasons now, but once again, a return to the promised land doesn’t look like it is on the cards this year.

Ken Bates’ controversial and mysterious ownership at Elland Road shows no sign of coming to an end, which means the frugality which has been the former Chelsea chairman’s hallmark at Leeds shows little sign of ceasing either.

Bates appointed Neil Warnock in March, no doubt in the hope of achieving promotion on the cheap, and after taking seven teams to a higher division during his colourful career, Warnock is better placed than most to work in the Football League on a limited budget.

But there is only so much Warnock can do without some more financial help and with his solid (if unspectacular) signings, the former Sheffield United boss will have to use all his Championship know-how to get United in the promotion picture. In truth, a quote of 10/1 for a team who finished 14th last term and don’t appear to have improved considerably need to be swerved.

Verdict: Miss out on the play-offs

Cardiff City

Title odds: 11/1 (4/1 to be promoted)

Cardiff City seem to have spent the last decade gearing up for top-flight football, but this could finally be the year that the dream is realised and Malky Mackay’s side are the stand-out Championship title bet at 11/1.

The Bluebirds have had to watch on as arch-rivals Swansea beat them to the punch to become the first Welsh club to play in the Premier League, but everything is in place to make 2012/13 a memorable one in South Wales.

Mackay is a manager going places and his transfer business in the off-season has been excellent. Joe Lewis is a fine buy in goal, Jordan Mutch is a steal from Birmingham and a strike force that scored 66 goals last term is boosted by the arrivals of Slovenian international Etien Velikonja, Championship veteran Heidar Helguson (scorer of nine Premier League goals for QPR last term) and the evergreen Craig Bellamy, who could make all the difference in his second stint at the club.

A series of near play-off misses have haunted Cardiff over recent seasons but those disappointments can hold the club in good stead and having knocked on the promotion door for long enough, the club is ready to smash it down and at 11/1, the Bluebirds are the value bet in the Championship title market.

Verdict: Champions

Brighton and Hove Albion

Title odds: 16/1 (5/1 to be promoted)

Another progressive club in this division are Brighton, who, after a competitive first year in the Championship, can improve once again to get among the play-off picture.

The Seagulls won the League One title at a canter in 2010/11 and their first season back in the second tier last term was a comfortable one that occasionally threatened more. But under the impressive Gus Poyet, Brighton can get better this year and if the title looks beyond them, a play-off place certainly doesn’t.

Their form at their new Amex Stadium was very good (the sixth-best home record in the division) and Poyet has made some good additions to a squad that looks settled, with further development to come. Poyet being poached by a bigger club is a concern for anyone interested in backing Brighton – the Uruguayan will definitely move on to bigger and better things one day – but as long as he remains, Brighton are upwardly mobile and the Seagulls can gatecrash the top six.

Verdict: Play-offs

Blackpool

Title odds: 16/1 (4/1 to be promoted)

Blackpool seem to have been unfairly written off if odds of 16/1 for the title are anything to go by, but the Seasiders look set to go well once more and are a value shout to win promotion back to the Premier League.

Ian Holloway has done a marvellous job at Bloomfield Road for the last three years, first winning the 2010 play-off final in his debut campaign before unluckily being relegated back to the second tier. But if anybody thought that would signal the end of Blackpool as a force, then last year will have made them think twice and May’s heart-breaking play-off final to West Ham was another great effort by Holloway and his players.

And there is no reason to suggest a repeat is impossible. An already talented squad, mixing youth and experience, has not been weakened with the loss of key men such as Matt Philips and Thomas Ince: in fact, it has been strengthened with some sound additions that will make the Tangerines more formidable.

Only champions Reading and promoted Southampton won more home games last term, while the Saints and West Ham were the only sides to score more goals and at odds of 4/1, Blackpool look a good bet to go one better than last season.

Verdict: Play-offs

Birmingham City

Title odds: 20/1 (9/2 to be promoted)

It is all change at St. Andrews as the financial cost of relegation in 2011 threatens to take hold but I think that the plight of Birmingham has, on the pitch at least, been overstated and new manager Lee Clark might not have it quite as hard as some envisage.

Chris Hughton’s defection to Norwich after such a sterling job at Birmingham left a tough act to follow, but if a tilt at the Championship title doesn’t look like it will happen, I don’t see any reason why Clark can’t emulate Hughton in taking Blues into the top six.

The former Huddersfield manager has inherited a good squad, with decent cover and experience at the back, talent in midfield and plenty of firepower still on the books up front. If the majority of the group can be retained – and who knows what will happen with the crazy Carson Yeung experiment still in full effect – I think those writing off Birmingham’s chances are premature.

In fact, with some good signings already under his belt, the biggest question mark is over Clark himself. The ex-Newcastle midfielder wasn’t a failure at the Galpharm, but neither was he a success (despite that unbeaten league record) as he failed to get Huddersfield promoted despite enjoying a large budget. Clark needs a good stint at St. Andrews to justify his reputation, but I think he can make a good start by steering Birmingham into the top six, which might make the 9/2 on promotion worth a look.

Verdict: Play-offs

Middlesbrough

Title odds: 20/1 (11/2 to be promoted)

Tony Mowbray has been juggling making his beloved Middlesbrough competitive while at the same time balancing the books for chairman Steve Gibson and the result could be that Boro end up with a similar feeling to last season.

Mowbray had the Teessiders threatening the promotion places for most of the year before falling away in the spring as the lack of a genuine goalscorer came back to bite Boro, who finished just outside the play-off places.

Just eight wins and 22 goals in 23 games at the Riverside wasn’t good enough and the former West Brom boss has at least identified that lack of cutting edge and tried to rectify the problem. Mustapha Carayol and Emmanuel Ledesma have been plucked from the lower leagues in a bid to give Boro more firepower, but they represent a gamble and how they perform in more exalted company remains to be seen.

Thirteen sides scored more goals than Boro last season and Mowbray doesn’t seem to have done quite enough to bridge that gap and I fear another missed opportunity awaits.

Verdict: Miss out on the play-offs

Sheffield Wednesday

Title odds: 25/1 (7/1 to be promoted)

There is always one surprise team every season in the Championship who come from the pack and over-perform, and Sheffield Wednesday could well be that team this year.

Dave Jones was parachuted in at the expense of Gary Megson in February to breathe life into Wednesday’s League One promotion bid and it proved to be the right decision by controversial owner Milan Mandaric as Jones pipped city rivals Sheffield United to automatic promotion.

And since securing second-tier football, the Owls have been busy in the transfer market, adding significant reinforcements to a squad that was already good enough to consolidate in the league above. Wednesday had the best home record in League One last season, losing just twice, and their form at Hillsborough can be maintained and used as the basis for a good campaign.

Jones is a veteran of the Championship, too, having managed in the division in ten of the last 12 seasons and his experience could prove invaluable. It may be speculative, but Wednesday can put themselves into the play-off picture and could give you a run for your money until the end of the season at 7/1 to be promoted.

Verdict: Miss out on the play-offs (just)

Recommended bet #1: Cardiff to win the Championship @ 11/1
Recommended bet #2: Bolton to be promoted @ 5/2
Recommended bet #3: Blackpool to be promoted @ 4/1

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