West Ham look good to gain first-leg lead
The Hammers are much happier away from Upton Park and can make hay against a Cardiff side who have struggled at home in recent months.
In the week that the FA surprised everyone by naming a new England manager that doesn’t own dodgy offshore bank accounts named after his pet dog but does actually have the ability to write things down on a piece of paper, let us spare a thought for poor old Sam Allardyce.
For in Fat Sam’s world, it is he of hoofball tactics and Sir Alex Ferguson sycophancy that is the rightful manager of his nation. And why not? This is a man who, after all, “would have no problem winning the league every year” with Inter Milan or Real Madrid if only he would be given the chance that his undoubted pedigree suggests, nay, demands, he should receive.
All very well, of course, were it not for the fact that his West Ham side, arguably the most lavishly assembled squad in the Championship, have failed in their stated aim of automatic promotion.
Allardyce was still banging the drum of his England credentials before Christmas by saying that if he was “on top of his game” come the season’s end he would be in line to replace Fabio Capello, but by the time the Italian left his post earlier than expected, Allardyce was overseeing a horrible run of home results to match his horrible football that ultimately undermined their top two ambitions.
| Confederation Cup - Group B | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nigeria | 0-1 | Uruguay | £135.00 | (23/4) |
| Nigeria | 1-1 | Uruguay | £140.00 | (6/1) |
| Nigeria | 0-2 | Uruguay | £155.00 | (27/4) |
| Nigeria win | £94.00 | (37/10) | ||
| Draw | £74.00 | (27/10) | ||
| Uruguay win | £34.00 | (7/10) | ||
It has left the Hammers in what they call ‘the lottery’ of the play-offs, where they face Cardiff City over two legs for a place in the Wembley final against either Blackpool or Birmingham.
It is hard to remember such a competitive play-off foursome in recent years, with every side capable of the sort of performance level needed to win games of this importance.
No team won more points on their travels than the Hammers, who boast a 13-6-4 record on the road in the regular season, and they can make the most of a stuttering Cardiff side.
The Irons travel to the Cardiff City Stadium for Thursday’s first leg and the odds compilers at bwin can’t seem to call it. Both Cardiff and West Ham are priced up at 8/5 to gain a vital edge before Monday’s return leg in London, with the draw at 11/5.
It looks too close to call, but call it I’m going to and I’m leaning towards West Ham. Allardyce’s troubles at home, where his tactical rigidness and lack of inspiration have been West Ham’s undoing, are their exact strengths on their travels.
No team won more points on their travels than the Hammers, who boast a 13-6-4 record on the road in the regular season, and they can make the most of a stuttering Cardiff side.
Malky Mackay has done a wonderful job since inheriting just ten players upon taking the job last summer and the Bluebirds were incredibly unlucky to lose the Carling Cup final on penalties to Liverpool in February.
But their form since beating Crystal Palace in the semi-final in late January suggests it derailed their season: the Welsh side won just six of their last 19 league games and their recent home form has been very poor.
Mackay has overseen just one home win in the last eight, drawing four blanks. Significantly, one of those matches was a 2-0 defeat to West Ham and I advise a small play on the 8/5 on West Ham, who won seven of their 11 trips to teams in the top half and who, in my opinion, simply possess the better players.
Recommended bet: West Ham to win @ 8/5
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