Southampton could come unstuck at Ashton Gate

It is one of those unfathomable things in football, but it is something that every fan can recognise and will spend at least a small portion of the season moaning about: why does your club have bogey teams they can never beat?

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On paper, it just doesn’t make any sense why one cub would continually struggle against another club, failing to beat another team season in, season out, but it happens with such regularity that it has become part of being a football fan. How many times has your mate said to you before a match ‘oh, we never win there’, only for him to be proved right once again after the 90 minutes? Or, if you’re the ever pessimistic football fan, how many times have you thought ‘we always beat them, they are due a result against us’ only for your team to win, again?

And it doesn’t seem to matter that players and managers differ: the annals of time do little to change these pre-ordained fortunes. It just seems written in the stars. Part of the club’s DNA.

Yes, Southampton are clearly better. But they were last time. And the time before that. So let’s learn the lesson of history and get on Bristol City to get a result.

The reason I bring this up is that Southampton travel to Bristol City on Tuesday, and Saints fans making the trek over to Ashton Gate will be having these very thoughts. Of course, as a newly promoted Premier League club facing a side that narrowly escaped relegation to League One last term, you might imagine this would be a routine pre-season run-out for Nigel Adkins’ men.

And it may yet prove to be so. But a look at the recent record between the two sides suggests otherwise: Bristol City have become a bogey team for Southampton. This has me, given it is just a pre-season friendly, thinking that the 17/20 on Southampton to win the match might not be such a fine bet as you may think it is. The Robins are at 11/4 to secure victory, with the draw at 23/10 and they are both tempting in the light of recent results.

Since modern football was invented by Sky (1992), the clubs have met six times, all in the last six years, and Bristol City have won five of those encounters, four of them without conceding a goal. Even last season, when Southampton were storming to back to back promotions and a return to the Premier League after an eight year exodus, Derek McInnes’ side did the double over the Saints, winning 2-0 at Ashton Gate and 1-0 at St Mary’s.

So even though clearly superior, Southampton couldn’t get a result against a side who only avoided the drop from the Championship by two points last term.

With this being a friendly, meaning both sides are not yet up to speed, and with the game apparently being part of a bigger pattern, it is worth taking a look at the 83/100 that Bristol City avoid defeat.

The Robins come into the match in fine form having won three pre-season friendlies on the bounce against Kilmarnock, Dunfirmline and, on Saturday, arch rivals Bristol Rovers.

With some decent transfer activity under their belts (particularly Paul Anderson from Nottingham Forest) they look in better shape than last year and can give the Saints a match.

Yes, Southampton are clearly better. But they were last time. And the time before that. So let’s learn the lesson of history and get on Bristol City to get a result.

Recommended bet: Bristol City to win or draw at 83/100

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