The champions once again gave me a little scare when Bobby Zamora equalised midway through the second half for the Hoops, but the attacking prowess within Roberto Mancini’s squad means goals are never far away and their – and my – result duly arrived with late strikes from Edin Dzeko and Carlos Tevez.
The City bet was the first time I’ve gone for an outright victory result in the rehashed version of the challenge – and for good reason, too (need I remind you of the debacle of the USA Women’s U20 she-devils which ruined my first attempt?).
Now, aside from the £10k challenge, it has been known for me to have a little punt here and there myself. Only on birthdays, Christmas, friends’ birthdays, Easter, national bank holidays and barmitzvahs, of course. However, I did let my guard down last weekend and ended up pulling in a couple of quid from an eight-fold accumulator.
|Confederation Cup - Group A|
Even looking back to last season there were goals aplenty from these sides, with Ebbsfleet being involved in 153 goals across 46 games and Forest Green’s matches providing 111.
My new line of attack on accumulators is to throw in a couple of ‘both teams to score’ and ‘over 1.5 goals in the match’ bets to pad out the odds and increase your potential earnings and after the success of the last weekend, I’ll definitely be following suit in the future. Next Saturday, for instance, is the third anniversary of my mate Phil’s mum and dad’s divorce – so it would be rude not to dabble.
Of the 45 Premier and Football League matches which took place across Saturday and Sunday, 37 had over 1.5 goals scored in them and the odds on offer make these bets very accommodating if you’re looking to string a few together.
Modern football matches tend to average over two goals per game when looked at in a large sample – indeed, of all the 92 league clubs, only eight are currently averaging less from their league fixtures so far this season.
Of course, it’s not a hard and fast rule, but if you’re prepared to have a rustle around then there are plenty of fixtures on offer where there’s a great chance of seeing a couple of net bulges before the 90 minutes are up. And with the rules of the £10 to £10k Challenge allowing me to pick bets as short as 1/10, it’s clear to see the appeal of the over 1.5 goals market.
No surprise, then, that one of these will form the fourth dimension of my latest attempt. After backing up the rationale with statistics and evidence from league football, I have actually decided to dip my head below the parapet and have a butcher’s at the Conference for my new game of choice.
On Tuesday night, high-flying Forest Green Rovers face Ebbsfleet United and I’m pretty convinced that the sides from Gloucestershire and Kent can throw up a cricket score at the New Lawn.
Green have started the season well in winning four of their six games, drawing the other two, with 16 goals scored in total in those fixtures at an average rate of 2.66 goals a game. The Fleet, meanwhile, have only won one of their six – but 24 goals have been plundered across those half a dozen games, mostly at the wrong end from their perspective.
Even looking back to last season there were goals aplenty from these sides, with Ebbsfleet being involved in 153 goals across 46 games and Forest Green’s matches providing 111. An impressive 20 of United’s 23 home games featured two goals or more, while the same was true of 19 of Rovers’ 23 fixtures on the road.
The corresponding fixture (which took place as recently as April 6th) ended 3-1 to Green and all in all, I think I’ve unearthed enough forensics to safely lump my £15.60 on there to be over 1.5 goals at 4/25.
Should that punt come in, I’ll be on £18.10 and just one more astutely picked bet away from doubling my initial stake.
Current balance: £15.60
Potential balance: £18.10
Follow us on Twitter @bwin