League Two Title and Promotion Betting Preview 2012/13

In what looks like a wide open division, bwinbetting.com runs the rule over the title chances of Rotherham United, Fleetwood Town, Chesterfield, Southend United, Oxford United, Bristol Rovers, Bradford City, Gillingham, Torquay United and Cheltenham Town as League Two kicks off on Saturday.

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Rotherham United

Title odds: 33/10 (7/10 for promotion)

Rotherham are the short-priced favourites to win the League Two title, but they represent poor value in what is an open market. Part of their favouritism is no doubt down to the appointment of Steve Evans, who bizarrely left Crawley Town to join the Millers in April with the club on the cusp of promotion to League One.

Though Evans did well to win the Conference at Crawley and sustain a promotion challenge in their debut season as a football league club, his side were similarly priced to Rotherham and never looked like securing a title they were expected to win at a canter.

Transfer activity has been plentiful but not brilliant: Lionel Ainsworth looks a fine buy and Daniel Nardiello should score goals at this level, but he is hardly Adam Le Fondre and there are others who make far more appeal at bigger odds, especially when you consider just one ante-post favourite has obliged by winning the championship in the last 11 years.

That said, the Millers will no doubt improve on their 11th-placed finish and will be in the promotion shake-up come May.

Verdict: Play-offs

Fleetwood Town

Title odds: 5/1 (5/4 for promotion)

Fleetwood Town make their football league bow this season after romping to the Conference title last season and having spent heavily by League Two standards, they can secure promotion to League One.

Former Blackpool player Mickey Mellon will be looking to follow in Crawley’s footsteps and win back-to-back promotions coming from non-league – a feat that has happened five times in the last seven seasons – and Town look a good shout to do just that.

The Cod Army might have lost top scorer Jamie Vardy to Leicester City, but he has been replaced by Colchester’s Steven Gillespie and the much-travelled Jon Parkin, meaning Fleetwood boast an impressive array of attacking options for a bottom-tier club.

Town lost just five games last term and look like a club in a hurry, and if the 5/1 is short, the 5/4 on Mellon masterminding a promotion campaign reflects that Fleetwood are going to be right in the mix and they have what it takes to make their stay in League Two a short and successful one.

Verdict: Automatic promotion

Chesterfield

Title odds: 10/1 (5/2 for promotion)

Relegated Chesterfield will be looking to bounce back to League One at the first time of asking and could be in and around the play-off picture, even if the League Two title looks beyond them.

The Spireites have kept faith with boss John Sheridan, who won promotion for the club in 2010/11 and captured the Johnstone’s Paint Trophy by beating Swindon at Wembley in March. That faith isn’t misplaced, although automatic promotion looks like a big ask for Chesterfield this time.

Marc Richards is a shrewd signing and the former Port Vale striker will get goals at this level, but the squad is very thin and a couple of injuries would seriously derail their ambitions. That said, they are very well stocked in attacking areas and will score plenty of goals, meaning a challenge for a top-seven berth is likely, even if the 10/1 quote on Chesterfield winning the title is poor value.

Verdict: Just miss out on the play-offs

Southend United

Title odds: 14/1 (7/2 for promotion)

Southend missed out on promotion last season by losing in the play-off semi-final to Crewe, but the Shrimpers can go one better this time and at 14/1, they have to be backed for the League Two title.

Paul Sturrock has a great record in the lower leagues, winning promotion five times in his career, and he can make it a sixth this term. Southend were terrific for most of last season, boasting the best away record in the division, the second-highest goal tally, the third-best defensive record and only missed out on automatic promotion by one point.

Most of the squad has been retained, including influential winger Ryan Hall, who was the club’s top scorer and assist maker last season, and with extra firepower added in the shape of striker Freddy Eastwood, not to mention the return from injury of Barry Corr, United can make up for last season’s heartache by claiming the championship at a juicy 14/1.

Verdict: Champions

Oxford United

Title odds: 14/1 (3/1 for promotion)

Chris Wilder failed to really get Oxford in the promotion picture last season and it could end up being a similar story this time round.

The U’s had plenty of backers last year but never truly got in the frame and their tally of 59 goals was the lowest in the top ten. Striker James Constable’s in and out season didn’t help and Wilder will need him to fire now that he appears to be staying at the club after much speculation.

Oxford’s transfer activity doesn’t inspire, and they don’t have the quality of other teams who are similarly priced. The 14/1 for the title needs avoiding, as even a play-off berth could be beyond Oxford this season.

Verdict: Miss out on the play-offs

Bristol Rovers

Title odds: 14/1 (3/1 for promotion)

Mark McGhee did a decent job in steadying the Bristol Rovers ship when he took over in the middle of last season, but vast improvement may be beyond his side this time around.

Former Leicester manager McGhee took over in January from Paul Buckle, who struggled badly, and brought about an upturn in results that meant Rovers climbed the table, but there appears to be little chance of them landing the title.

Rovers won only five of their 23 away games to finish 13th and the quality of player brought into the club by McGhee over the summer does little to make you think a top-seven finish is possible, especially now that star attacker Mustapha Carayol has been sold to Middlesbrough. Managerial changes and high player turnover have been a hallmark of recent seasons for Rovers and a solid upper mid-table campaign will be welcomed after a few difficult seasons.

Verdict: Miss out on the play-offs

Bradford City

Title odds: 16/1 (5/1 for promotion)

Bradford City have been among the pre-season favourites for promotion for as long as they have been in League Two, but for the first time during that period, the fans at Valley Parade have grounds for optimism.

The Bantams have underachieved for long enough and Phil Parkinson finally has the club edging in the right direction. After a slow start, Parkinson seems to be getting to grips with the task at Bradford and improvement on last year’s 18th-placed finish can be expected. Alan Connell is a very good buy at this level and the former Swindon man can be the regular goalscorer Bradford have so often lacked, while Nathan Doyle, Stephen Darby and Gary Jones are all fine additions.

Whether or not Bradford can gate-crash the promotion party is questionable – the 16/1 on the title is no value at all – but the club are on an upward curve at last and should at least be battling for a top-seven position.

Verdict: Just miss out on the play-offs

Gillingham

Title odds: 18/1 (9/2 for promotion)

After missing out on a play-off place by just two points last season, there is every chance that Gillingham can make the step up into the top seven under the stewardship of Martin Allen.

‘Mad Dog’ knows this bottom division as well as anyone and he is taking over a side that has a decent platform for a good tilt at promotion. Nobody scored more goals than the Gills’ 79 last season and only the promoted trio won more home games than Gillingham’s 13.

Away form will be a concern for Allen, as ten defeats on the road was too many for a side with play-off ambitions, but the key players in the squad are still at the Priestfield and if Allen can get the best out of Jo Kuffour and Danny Kedwell, who had a solid first year in the Football League, then Gillingham have it in them to sneak a play-off place.

Verdict: Play-offs

Torquay United

Title odds: 22/1 (9/2 for promotion)

Torquay only just missed out on automatic promotion last season and their chances of going one better appear to have been seriously underestimated by the bwin bookmakers.

Martin Ling had a difficult start to his United career after replacing Paul Buckle, winning just three of his first 14 games in charge, but soon stamped his authority on the club and finished in the playoffs, losing to Cheltenham.

And there are plenty of reasons to suggest they can improve on that effort this season. Only Southend won more away games last term, while champions Swindon and promoted Shrewsbury were the only two sides to lose fewer home matches. Those two sides were also the only teams to win more points than Torquay from January 1st onwards and even if a couple of key players have been sold (Eunan O’Kane in particular), the squad remains strong, especially with the addition of Billy Bodin.

The 22/1 on the title is value, but better still could be the 9/2 that Torquay put the disappointment of last season behind them and win promotion at the second time of asking under Ling.

Verdict: Automatic promotion

Cheltenham Town

Title odds: 28/1 (5/1 for promotion)

Cheltenham are another side who look to have been too lightly dismissed by the odds compilers and there is certainly some value in their price for winning promotion from League Two.

Going off at 150/1 to win the division last August, Mark Yates masterminded a great campaign for Cheltenham as they exceeded all expectations to reach the play-off final, where they lost to a Nick Powell-inspired Crewe at Wembley.

The bookies seem to think this was a one-off, if the 28/1 quote for the title is anything to go by, but there is value in the 5/1 that Cheltenham can go one better. Most of the squad that did so well last season has been retained, including star midfielder Marlon Pack, and the addition of proven goalscorer Shaun Harrod from Bury will only improve their chances. And in a wide open section, Cheltenham represent some real value at 5/1 to be promoted.

Verdict: Play-offs

Recommended bet #1: Southend to win League Two @ 14/1 (click to bet)
Recommended bet #2: Torquay to win promotion @ 9/2 (click to bet)

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