Cagey opening could lead to 2nd half thriller in Newcastle v Man City

After a huge win over their closest competitors in midweek, the prize is within touching distance. Long suffering loyal fans could be about to enjoy their finest moment for decades as their team, full of top attacking flair, surpasses all expectations.

The fact that opening paragraph could easily describe both Newcastle United and Manchester City is testament to how monumentally important Sunday’s game at the Sports Direct Arena really is.

For City, this really is the one: just one game, albeit an admittedly difficult one, to all but secure a first top flight Championship since 1968 (if that sounds disrespectful to Queens Park Rangers who travel to the Etihad on the final day, then that is exactly the way it was intended).

Following Monday’s thoroughly deserved victory over Manchester United, Roberto Mancini’s side lead the Premier League on goal difference in the knowledge that two wins from their two remaining games will land them the championship and possibly shift the landscape of English football for good in the process.

Newcastle have won seven out of the last eight and are unbeaten at home in 2012, keeping four home clean sheets on the bounce.  It is fearless form, and Mancini has had his troubles on the road since November.

Although if Mancini had his pick of fixtures to secure the league title, you would imagine Newcastle away from home would be somewhere near the bottom of the list. Because though theirs is the most unexpected of success stories, Newcastle are the real deal: brilliantly organised by the hitherto underrated Alan Pardew, they possess a cutting edge that is the envy of most of the league and a combination of the two is reaping rewards to the point where Champions League qualification is in sight after Wednesday’s terrific 2-0 win at Chelsea.

There isn’t much I can add to the number of plaudits aimed in the direction of Papiss Cisse following his stunning – stunning! – second goal in midweek, but I cannot remember the last time a striker exploded on the scene with the sort of impact he has enjoyed since his £10 million move in January. A total of 13 goals in 12 games, many of them blinders, is almost beyond comprehension.

It means this game is on a knife edge, far more so than the odds suggest. There is no way one earth Newcastle should be 4/1 to win – those odds do them a gross disservice. By the same token, City are short at 31/50, with the draw at 3/1.

City, the better team, need the result so that appears to have artificially shortened the price.

But the respective fortunes of the two sides over recent months (I’m particularly thinking about City’s form away from home) mean the odds should be closer.

Newcastle have won seven out of the last eight and are unbeaten at home in 2012, keeping four home clean sheets on the bounce.  It is fearless form, and Mancini has had his troubles on the road since November.

City might have won two consecutive away games, but they were against already-on-the-beach Norwich and already-relegated Wolves while the pressure was seemingly off.

Prior to that, City had won just two of ten away trips, scoring only five goals – an incredibly poor return for a team with such attacking prowess.

Seven of those games featured under 1.5 goals (all but one were under 2.5) and Mancini’s pragmatism, plus the pressure of leading the table, were contributing factors. Both those factors are at play once again here, and I expect the Italian to adopt a safety first approach on Sunday.

With Newcastle also needing the win, I predict a cagey, tense start to the match that will eventually open up as both sides chase the victory. That makes the 23/20 that the second half sees more goals than the first a fine bet.

Recommended bet: second half to have more goals @ 23/20

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