Why Arsenal will leave Chelsea’s unbeaten start in tatters
Roberto Di Matteo's side have not convinced so far this season and the Gunners can claim the points in a fierce London derby.
When it comes to punting, I am a big believer in looking at performances rather than results and one of my golden rules is to assess if a team’s points tally actually matches what they have produced on the pitch.
Results do not tell the whole picture, as many variables can effect the outcome of a football match: a dodgy decision from the officials, an extremely fortunate goal, a goalkeeping error, an injury to a key player, and so on.
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And with the domestic leagues in their embryonic stage, there are dozens of reasons why a team may get off to an unexpectedly good start before fading away to their natural level – you only have to look at the fortunes of Yeovil Town in League One (top of the league after three games, bottom half after seven) for a perfect example.
Which brings me to Chelsea. Now I am not for one minute suggesting that the Champions League winners are going to slip into the lower reaches of the Premier League, but I am of the opinion that they are extremely fortunate to have enough points to currently sit at the summit of the table and I see their trip to the Emirates to face Arsenal in Saturday’s lunchtime kick-off as the perfect opportunity to oppose them.
| Premier League | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | £120.00 | (5/1) | ||
| Draw | £92.00 | (18/5) | ||
| Arsenal win | £29.00 | (9/20) | ||
| Newcastle | 0-0 | Arsenal | £280.00 | (13/1) |
| Newcastle | 1-0 | Arsenal | £420.00 | (20/1) |
| Newcastle | 1-1 | Arsenal | £175.00 | (31/4) |
Chelsea have had a dream fixture list in the Premier League, but have flattered to deceive in wins over Wigan, Reading and Stoke, as well as draws against QPR and, in the Champions League, Juventus, where a 2-0 lead was thrown away.
Put simply, Chelsea just haven’t convinced me at all so far this season and I think a domestic defeat is just around the corner. Roberto Di Matteo may be a Champions League and FA Cup winner but he has a lot to do to prove he is the man for the long term at Stamford Bridge and I am not getting carried away by 13 points out of 15 in the league so far.
Chelsea have had a dream fixture list in the Premier League, but have flattered to deceive in wins over Wigan, Reading and Stoke, as well as draws against QPR and, in the Champions League, Juventus, where a 2-0 lead was thrown away.
And when you remember they lost the Community Shield to a superior Manchester City and were hammered by Atletico Madrid in the Super Cup, I think the overall picture doesn’t look too healthy for Di Matteo and in-form Arsenal can punish them further.
The price on Arsenal is good enough, too, with the Gunners chalked up at 23/20 and I will be swerving the 23/10 on the draw and the same quote on Chelsea to get on Arsene Wenger’s boys.
After an admittedly slow-ish start, you can’t help but have been impressed with Arsenal this season. Wenger’s side remain unbeaten in all competitions, winning five of the last six and scoring 17 goals in the process.
The only game they didn’t win was away at Manchester City (when a point was the least they deserved) and it is a sign of progress that Arsenal can stand toe-to-toe with the champions at fortress Etihad Stadium and come away unfortunate not to have won.
I wouldn’t worry about Chelsea’s great record against Arsenal, either. The Gunners couldn’t beat the Blues from the moment Jose Mourinho arrived in England, but Arsenal have actually won two out of the last three meetings (the other game was drawn) and with Didier Drogba, Arsenal’s tormentor in chief, now plying his trade in China, much of the fear factor will have gone with him.
Drogba’s absence brings us back to one of Chelsea’s main problems: Fernando Torres. The £50 million man does not look like getting back to his best at present but Di Matteo has little choice but to persevere with the Spaniard given the lack of striking options at the club.
The returning Thomas Vermaelen should be able to take care of Torres and with Santi Cazorla orchestrating things brilliantly from midfield against a Chelsea defence that looks shaky, I am going to be all over the 23/20 on Arsenal come Saturday lunchtime.
Recommended bet: Arsenal to beat Chelsea @ 23/20
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