The Gunners will prove too strong for Southampton

Three consecutive clean sheets with a defence that has hardly let the opposition have a shot at their goal – where have the real Arsenal gone?

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If you had been talking about the Gunners circa 1989 under the stewardship of George Graham, then this was to be expected from the side that, with Tony Adams at its defensive core, made a triumphant motto out of ’1-0 to the Arsenal’.

But the last thing that anyone has expected from Arsene Wenger’s side over recent years is defensive solidity and the fans at the Emirates can barely believe what they are seeing.

For so long a laughing stock, the Arsenal rearguard, no matter what the make-up of the back five positions, seemed incapable of performing the most basic of their duties: a lack of shield in front of them left them open to counter-attacks, the centre-backs have often appeared vulnerable and the entire side looked more uncomfortable than Andy Gray at the Women’s Institute Christmas party when defending set-pieces.

Fifteen of Arsenal’s home games last term had under 3.5 goals (as well as the one from this year), while 18 of Saints’ 23 away games saw the same result and I think the 13/10 is a sound way of getting value on the home win.

So what has changed? Most of the credit is going to Steve Bould, the club’s former centre-back who replaced Pat Rice as assistant manager in the summer. Bould might look like a dodgy mechanic but as a multiple title winner he knows how to defend and there is no doubting he has had some influence on how Arsenal are shutting out the opposition.

A caveat must be placed on those clean sheets – Sunderland, Stoke and Liverpool are among the most shot-shy teams in the league and bigger tests no doubt await – but if Arsenal can maintain their meanness and marry it with their usual attacking prowess (which remains to be seen in the absence of Robin van Persie) then Wenger could enjoy as fine a season as he has in some time.

But strange as it may seem, the visit of Southampton to the Emirates on Saturday could represent the biggest test of Arsenal’s new defensive steel. The bookies don’t give the Saints much chance of winning the match – they are 31/4 to get three points, while you can get 17/50 on a home win and15/4 on the draw – but this may not be as straightforward as those odds suggest.

Southampton are pointless, but that doesn’t fairly represent their efforts so far in what has been a nightmare opening set of fixtures. The newly-promoted Saints were not at their best when losing 2-0 to Wigan Athletic, but were unlucky to lose to both Manchester clubs (especially United last time out, when they led 2-1 in the 85th minute) and this is the sort of match that Nigel Adkins can send his players out for with no fear.

And Southampton can be a dangerous side. They have scored four goals in their two clashes with the Manchester teams, to go with the 85 they notched in securing promotion from the Championship last season, and I predict they will give Arsenal a tough match.

In among the furore over the win over a poor Liverpool side and the three clean sheets is that Arsenal still look a bit short of goals to me – they drew blanks against Sunderland and Stoke, and although vastly superior to Liverpool, didn’t create too much at Anfield other than the goals. I still think Wenger is some way short of getting the Gunners firing at the top end of the pitch, which is why I will be on the 13/10 that Arsenal win a match that produces under 3.5 goals.

I expect Arsenal to be too strong eventually, but the international break will have done little for their fluidity and I don’t think that the Gunners are in for a cricket score.

Fifteen of Arsenal’s home games last term had under 3.5 goals (as well as the one from this year), while 18 of Saints’ 23 away games saw the same result and I think the 13/10 is a sound way of getting value on the home win.

Recommended bet: Arsenal to win and under 3.5 goals @ 13/10

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