Why backing another upset could be best bet for Liverpool v Wigan

It is tempting to say that Liverpool will be relieved to be back at Anfield following their shock 3-2 loss to QPR on Wednesday, but results this season show that even home advantage against a team battling relegation may not be enough for the Reds to secure all three points.

Kenny Dalglish’s side have won just five of their 14 matches at Anfield this season, with eight ending in draws and their most recent game finishing in a 2-1 loss to Arsenal.

Where once the sight of the ‘This is Anfield’ sign was almost enough on its own for Liverpool to claim all three points, now it is the home team who are spooked when playing in front of their own fans.

Sunderland, Norwich, Swansea, Blackburn and Stoke are among the teams to have stopped the Reds from picking up a win on their own ground and odds of 1/4 on a Liverpool victory seem to considerably overplay the home side’s chance of success.

But can you really back Wigan to come away from Anfield with something to show for their efforts?

It is not only Liverpool’s struggles at home which point to Wigan managing to get something from the game.

Can the same side who slumped to nine consecutive defeats earlier in the season and who have spent much of the campaign rooted to the bottom of the table really challenge Liverpool’s expensively-assembled squad?

The temptation, surely, is to say no and predict a comfortable win for Liverpool as they finally find some form in front of goal.

But there are only so many times you can put the squandering of countless chances down to bad luck, and only so many times you can predict an easy Liverpool victory only to see them struggle to another low-scoring draw.

And with a draw or Wigan win at 29/10 in bwin’s double chance market, the rewards for taking a chance and having a punt on another Liverpool off-day are too tempting to ignore.

After all, it is not only Liverpool’s struggles at home which point to Wigan managing to get something from the game.

The Reds are in poor form generally, with their derby success over Everton on March 13th being their only league success in their last six attempts.

Indeed, their form over this period has seen them pick up fewer points than their weekend opponents.

Roberto Martinez’s men have lost just once in their last six league games, with draws against Everton, Aston Villa, Norwich and West Brom supplementing a win away to Bolton on February 11th.

Another factor working in Wigan’s favour is that they have scored in eight of their last nine away trips in the league, with their only failure coming at Old Trafford during this run.

With Liverpool scoring more than once just four times in 14 attempts at home, Wigan’s chances of avoiding defeat can suddenly be seen in a different light.

Asked for an instant reaction and most fans will tell you that bwin’s 3Way football betting market has the draw at 17/4 and a Wigan success at 23/2 for a reason.

But with those odds of 29/10 in the double chance market to consider, and the hard facts supporting the case, backing the Latics to frustrate the Reds is surely worth a punt.

A successful £25 free bet on a draw or Wigan win in the double chance market is set to return £97.50, with the free bet available to new customers who sign up for a bwin account.

Recommended bet: Draw or Wigan win @29/10

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