Back surging Saints to beat fighting Fulham…but only just
Southampton are at football betting odds of 13/4 to beat the traditionally travel-sick Cottagers by a one-goal margin.
Having got the monkey of a first Premier League home win comprehensively off their backs with a 4-1 success against Aston Villa, Southampton will be confident of kicking on when they host Martin Jol’s Fulham this weekend.
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Home form has been key to the Saints’ rise from League One to the Premier League as they have lost just four times at St Mary’s over the past two seasons, which brought back-to-back promotions for the club.
Despite that statistic and Fulham’s notorious travel sickness – they have a ridiculously poor away win record of 12% over the past five years – you can still get 33/20 for a home win in bwin’s 3Way football betting market.
Premier League-established Fulham are actually favourites to pull off the ‘upset’ at 31/20 and the draw is 23/10.
| Primera Division | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mallorca | 1-1 | Betis Sevilla | £130.00 | (11/2) |
| Mallorca | 1-2 | Betis Sevilla | £175.00 | (31/4) |
| Mallorca | 2-1 | Betis Sevilla | £180.00 | (8/1) |
| Mallorca win | £52.00 | (8/5) | ||
| Draw | £70.00 | (5/2) | ||
| Betis Sevilla win | £50.00 | (6/4) | ||
Key to the Saints’ tremendous home form is their goalscoring prowess, with the recent 2-0 loss to Wigan Athletic the first time in 2012 they have failed to hit the back of the net at St Mary’s.
As such, 13/10 for over 1.5 home goals looks good value, as does 5/2 for Southampton to strike in both halves.
Home form has been key to the Saints’ rise from League One to the Premier League as they have lost just four times at St Mary’s over the past two seasons, which brought back-to-back promotions for the club.
Rickie Lambert has passed 200 career goals in helping Saints to the promised land and has brought that form into the Premier League, with four goals in five games already.
New customers using their free £20 bet to back Lambert to continue that run with the first goal on Saturday at 6/1 stand to win £140 if the former Bristol Rovers hitman breaks the deadlock.
That’s not to say Fulham don’t have some serious firepower of their own, including summer signings Mladen Petric (9/5 to score at any time) and Hugo Rodallega (2/1).
This will be a worry to Saints boss Nigel Adkins, who has not seen his side keep a clean sheet thus far, so a fifth Southampton game featuring over 3.5 combined goals also looks a good shout at 39/20.
With Saints’ defensive slackness combined with Fulham’s increased away resilience under Jol (saving 18 points from losing positions last term), a second-half Cottagers comeback to save a point is also worth considering at 25/2.
However, I will be siding with Southampton to triumph, but considering how evenly matched the teams are, backing them to prevail by a one-goal margin at 13/4 could provide a tempting longer-priced alternative to their billing in the 3Way market.
Recommended bet: Southampton to beat Fulham @ 33/20
Outside punt: Southampton to win by a one-goal margin @ 13/4
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