Toon can keep top four bid going with win against Wigan

What a crazy season 2011-2012 has been.

Bizarre scorelines, major upsets and poor officiating have all played their part to make sure that even if the quality of the football has not been great, the level of entertainment has kept everyone riveted.

And in this season of strange happenings, we now have the prospect of Newcastle United, one of the Premier League’s true success stories this year, missing out on a place in the Champions League because Chelsea could well defy all the odds and win this year’s trophy.

This would deny the team that finishes fourth the chance to qualify for next year’s competition.

It is as an unpalatable situation for Newcastle as it is increasingly likely. Because make no mistake, Alan Pardew’s men are in pole position to cement that coveted fourth spot. Three points ahead of fifth place Tottenham (who have fallen away badly over the last two months), the Toon are the form team in the division, and Pardew must be in the running for manager of the season.

With Chelsea and Manchester City to play, the Magpies have a tough run-in so there is no doubt they will be looking at their fixture against Wigan at the DW Stadium on Saturday as a must-win match if they are to fulfil their newly found and unexpected ambitions. That is not to say that it is an easy fixture for Newcastle, as the odds more than suggest.

Wigan are in fine form, but Newcastle are in even better fettle and are the far superior outfit – take the 7/5 they prove it on Saturday.

The Toon are 7/5 to pick up the vital three points, with the draw at 23/10 and Wigan priced at 37/20 to gain a victory that they need for very different reasons.

Being just one point and one place above the relegation zone, Wigan are exactly where they want to be come 5pm on 13th May. Their now annual sprint finish to avoid relegation to the Championship has gathered some incredible pace over recent weeks, to the point that this match pits first vs third in the Premier League form table.

Wigan have taken twelve points from 18, which includes barely credible wins over Liverpool at Anfield, Arsenal at the Emirates and Manchester United at home – each result a first in Wigan’s history.

The results were all fully merited and with games against Blackburn and Wolves to come, Roberto Martinez will be confident of securing their Premier League status.

I fear for the Latics, however, that results will be necessary in those final two fixtures as I like the look of 7/5 on a Newcastle victory here.

The Magpies have won six league games on the bounce, conceding just one goal in the process, and have played some scintillating stuff at times in notching 13 goals in that sequence.

With confidence high, I feel Newcastle are more than equipped to take advantage of Wigan’s deficiencies. Goal scoring is still a problem for the Latics: despite their recent run, only Stoke have fewer than Wigan’s 34 goals and when you see only the Manchester clubs have kept more clean sheets than Newcastle’s 14, I think Wigan will find it hard to trouble such a strong defensive side.

And despite that famous victory over Manchester United, Wigan’s home form remains a worry. Just 15 goals in 17 games is a concern, particularly as only five of those have come in their nine matches against the top half.

Of those nine, only United have left the DW defeated and Wigan will not find Newcastle obliging opponents. Pardew’s men boast a 6-2-1 record in their nine away fixtures against the bottom half – a points-per-game ratio bettered only by United – and have the firepower to trouble a side who have kept just six clean sheets all season.

Wigan are in fine form, but Newcastle are in even better fettle and are the far superior outfit – take the 7/5 they prove it on Saturday.

Recommended bet: Newcastle to beat Wigan @ 7/5

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