Why West Brom could settle title race once and for all

How far do you have to go back to pinpoint where it all went wrong for Manchester City? Was the title lost as far back as September, when the infamous Carlos Tevez incident in Munich turned the club into a soap opera?

Or, given City went on to record nine consecutive wins after their 2-0 defeat at the Allianz Arena, was the writing on the wall when they lost their first league game of the campaign away at Chelsea?

That defeat was the start of a run of five defeats and two draws in 12 matches, but a trip to Stamford Bridge was always going to prove a tough test – even during the reign of the hapless Andre Villas-Boas – and their 0-0 draw away to West Brom was perhaps the decisive moment in Manchester City’s season.

Against a team most expected City to blow away, the Citizens were stifled and failed to score a league goal for the first time in the campaign.

The Citizens were seemingly transformed from a team who couldn’t stop scoring into a side who, away from home at the very least, were suddenly clueless going forward.

Since that day, City have failed to score more than a single goal in a league game away from home and, having dropped points at the Etihad for the first time this season on Saturday, there are concerns that their malaise may be spreading to their home games.

Although City have the second-best half time home record in the league behind United, they have scored just one first half goal in their last seven matches.

Whenever it started, City’s decline has seen them fall eight points behind neighbours Manchester United in the title race with only five games to go.

And against this backdrop, West Brom travel to the Etihad to see if they can avoid defeat against Man City for the second time this season.

City are 7/25 favourites to pick up all three points and keep their slim title hopes alive in bwin’s 3Way football betting market, with the draw at 17/4 and a West Brom win at 9/1.

Meanwhile, in the double chance market, West Brom are at 5/2 to claim at least a point.

The obvious course of action to take here is to bet on a Man City win to nil. After all, City have triumphed in 15 of their 16 home matches this season and won six of their last nine league games at the Etihad to nil.

But they have also failed to win any of their last three league games and their key players – with the exceptions of Paul Hart and Vincent Kompany – are alternatively injured, suspended, fatigued or out of form.

Mario Balotelli is sure to miss tomorrow’s game following the red card he received in Sunday’s 1-0 defeat to Arsenal and Yaya Toure is a major doubt after limping out of the same match.

David Silva is a shadow of the player who caught the eye at the start of the season and Sergio Aguero also looks like he needs a rest, even if the Argentine has continued to find the back of the net.

And with West Brom having come up with the template for keeping City at bay, there looks to be value in odds of 5/2 on an away win or draw in the double chance market.

A successful £25 free bet on West Brom to win or draw at the Etihad is set to return £87.50, with the free bet available to new customers who sign up for a bwin account.

That said, even if City are on a bad run their squad depth means that writing them off is extremely dangerous; they might have had a shorter timeframe to prepare for tomorrow’s game (West Brom played on Saturday to Man City’s Sunday) but with the likes of Adam Johnson and Carlos Tevez to come in if needed, the Bagies are going to be given a stern examination of their defensive credentials.

With this in mind, a safer bet could be on West Brom holding out until half time, with the draw after 45 minutes available at 33/20.

Although City have the second-best half time home record in the league behind United, they have scored just one first half goal in their last seven matches.

Roy Hodgson will therefore fancy his side’s chances of keeping the opposition at bay for the first 45 minutes at the very least.

Meanwhile, given City’s struggles early on in games of late, those who fancy the Citizens to ease clear could consider a bet on the home side to score more goals in the second half than they do at the first at odds of 5/4.

Just don’t be too surprised if West Brom cling on until the end once more.

Recommended bet: Draw at half time @ 33/20

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