History says Woods but back Luke Donald to break duck at US Open
A tough course which will punish mistakes means Luke Donald could be the last man standing at the US Open.
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Rory McIlroy will attempt to succeed where some of the biggest names in golf have failed when he starts the defence of his US Open title on the Lake Course at Olympic Club in San Francisco.
The likes of Tiger Woods, Arnold Palmer, Gary Player and Jack Nicklaus have all tried and come up short, leaving 1988 and 1989 winner Curtis Strange as the only man in the past 60 years to have successfully defended his US Open title.
But it is not just history which is working against McIlroy.
Given this year’s US Open is at the unforgiving Olympic Club, where even the smallest mistake is magnified, McIlroy will need to be at his best to secure the second major title of his career.
| Primera Division | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mallorca | 1-1 | Betis Sevilla | £120.00 | (5/1) |
| Mallorca | 2-1 | Betis Sevilla | £180.00 | (8/1) |
| Mallorca | 1-2 | Betis Sevilla | £185.00 | (33/4) |
| Mallorca win | £51.00 | (31/20) | ||
| Draw | £66.00 | (23/10) | ||
| Betis Sevilla win | £53.00 | (33/20) | ||
And although he bounced back at the weekend, three missed cuts in his last four outings suggests the 23-year-old is not in the sort of form which helped him secure the title by eight shots at Congressional last year.
This is reflected in bwin’s US Open outright winner betting market, where McIlroy has slipped from favourite to fourth-favourite on the back of his recent blip.
According to bwin, the new man to beat is world number four and three-time US Open winner Tiger Woods.
Donald will also be helped by being the eighth-best player on the PGA Tour in terms of driving accuracy percentage.
The 36-year-old clinched his second PGA Tour title of the year on his last outing at the Memorial Tournament and is priced at 8/1 to win a 15th major.
Woods’ recent form is not the only reason to consider backing him for the outright win, as a look further back in the history books shows he could be a wise pick.
All bar two of his last six tilts at the US Open have resulted in a top-five finish, with the exceptions being a tie for sixth in 2009 and a missed cut in 2006.
He also managed to win the tournament with a double stress fracture of his left tibia and a damaged anterior cruciate ligament in 2008.
Nevertheless, like McIlroy, Woods has floundered in three of the last four events he has played in.
He tied for 40th at the Masters, missed the cut at the Wells Fargo Championship and tied for 40th once more at the Players Championship.
Although his win at the Memorial followed, Woods has only finished in the top 20 once in his last seven Major championship appearances and two players in particular are in far better form.
One of them is Lee Westwood, who clinched the Nordea Scandinavian Masters at the weekend to make it two wins from his last six tournaments.
Just as significantly, Westwood has finished in the top five in four of those six events, including at the Masters and the prestigious Wells Fargo Championship.
He is also well placed to deal with the challenge of Olympic Club, which swing coach Butch Harmon has described as “ridiculously” tough in places.
With punishing roughs and sloping, unreceptive fairways, only the most accurate drivers will be in with a chance of winning.
Westwood is known as one of the best players from the tee and is ranked fifteenth in the PGA Tour’s total driving stats.
He is also top of the pile when it comes to greens hit, making him a good bet to win the US Open at 11/1.
However, it could be that Westwood’s Achilles’ heel – his putting – lets him down as he bids for a first ever major win, and it could be that world number one Luke Donald is the man who steps up to the plate.
Like Westwood, Donald is in fine form having won the BMW PGA Championship last month, as I predicted he would in my last golf preview.
Donald will also be helped by being the eighth-best player on the PGA Tour in terms of driving accuracy percentage.
However, it is his wizardry on and around the greens which could set him apart from the rest, with his putting likely to help him pick up strokes as well as get him out of a tight spot if he ever does run into trouble.
So while history may point away from McIlroy and in the direction of Woods, Donald, at odds of 12/1, could be the man to ensure that the UK holds onto the US Open for the third year in a row.
Recommended bet: Donald to win @ 12/1
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